NASA scientists have revealed that a newly discovered space Asteroid, 2024 YR4, has a 2.3% chance of colliding with Earth—making it one of the most intriguing near-Earth objects on their radar.
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NASA Warns: “City-Killer” Asteroid Has 1-in-43 Chance of Striking Earth in 2032
NASA Warns of “City-Killer” Asteroid with a 1-in-43 Chance of Striking Earth in 2032
NASA scientists have identified a newly discovered asteroid that could pose a serious threat to Earth. The space rock, named 2024 YR4, was first detected on December 27, 2024, by NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS). While the chances of an impact remain relatively low, current calculations estimate a 1-in-43 probability that this asteroid could collide with our planet in 2032.
The good news? If 2024 YR4 does strike Earth, it won’t trigger an extinction event like the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago. However, at approximately 180 feet (55 meters) across, it is large enough to cause catastrophic destruction to an entire city. Scientists estimate that upon impact, it would unleash energy equivalent to 8 megatons of TNT—more than 500 times the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima during World War II.
Although 2024 YR4 is currently moving away from Earth, it is expected to make several close approaches in the coming decades. The most concerning date is December 22, 2032, when its trajectory brings it uncomfortably close to our planet. In addition to this high-risk encounter, six other near misses are projected between 2032 and 2074, giving scientists plenty of opportunities to refine their calculations and reassess the asteroid’s threat level.
Due to its potential for significant damage, 2024 YR4 has been classified as a Level 3 threat on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. This system, used by astronomers to categorize the risk posed by near-Earth objects (NEOs), suggests that a Level 3 asteroid merits attention from both scientists and the public, particularly if an impact could occur within a decade. Historically, most asteroids initially rated at Level 3 are eventually downgraded to Level 0, meaning they pose no real risk. However, continued monitoring is crucial to determine whether this space rock will follow that trend.
The possibility of an asteroid impact serves as a stark reminder of why space agencies like NASA and their international counterparts invest in planetary defense research. The Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, successfully executed in 2022, demonstrated that we may be able to alter the trajectory of an incoming asteroid through kinetic impact technology. This kind of proactive approach could one day prove critical in deflecting a dangerous asteroid away from Earth.
For now, astronomers remain vigilant. Even though 2024 YR4 is unlikely to spell doom for humanity, a city-destroying impact would still be a devastating event. The coming years will provide more data to refine predictions, and scientists will continue tracking this space rock’s journey through the solar system. As we learn more, NASA will keep the public informed about any updates regarding the asteroid’s path.
This story was updated on February 7, 2025, following NASA’s latest risk assessment, which slightly increased the probability of impact. As more observations come in, expect further refinements in the asteroid’s predicted trajectory. Until then, researchers are keeping a close watch on the skies, ensuring that any potential threats are met with the best possible defense strategies.
Although the asteroid is currently moving away from us, Earth will have several close shaves with the space rock in the next half century. Its next sideswipe will occur in late 2028, followed by six more close approaches between 2032 and 2074. Of these, the one with the highest chance of impact will be on Dec. 22, 2032, according to NASA. As the asteroid gets closer, scientists will have a much better sense of its trajectory and likelihood of hitting Earth.